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The long-term benefits of the industry association

Views:1302 Author:Site Editor Publish Time:2016-10-25 11:29:23 Orgin:Site
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Excess capacity and mismatch of supply and demand coexist

On June 22, 2016, the State Council issued the guiding opinions on building a good market environment to promote the restructuring of non-ferrous metal industry, promoting transformation and increasing efficiency (hereinafter referred to as the Guiding Opinions), and put forward suggestions to deal with the deep-seated contradictions and problems such as structural overcapacity and imbalance of market supply and demand accumulated by the non-ferrous metal industry for a long time.


The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association said that this is an important document to guide the development of China's nonferrous metals industry in the next few years. In the four aspects of expanding market application, improving the reserve system, strengthening financial support and giving full play to the role of the industry association, the guiding opinions clearly proposed that the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association should be responsible for or participate in the implementation, so the work plan was specially formulated.


Zhushanshan, an analyst with Zhuo Chuang information, said that the non-ferrous metal industry has excess capacity and insufficient demand, but the essence is the mismatch between supply and demand. At present, the low-end sector has been oversupplied, while the high-end sector is still insufficient demand. China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association plans to expand the application of aluminum by 6 million tons in about three years, mainly in the high-end field of aluminum application.


According to the work plan, to expand the application of 6 million tons of aluminum, the main measures are to continue to consolidate and expand the application of aluminum in trailers, coal trucks, construction engineering templates, building aluminum enclosure plates, and strive to promote the application of aluminum in civil aircraft, automobile body sheets, urban new energy bus bodies, ship aluminum alloy plates and aluminum alloy flood walls, urban aluminum The application of structural overpass and bridge detection platform.


Sun Kewen pointed out that for aluminum, the application of 6 million tons of aluminum is also on a large scale, which has a certain role in boosting the price of aluminum. Moreover, non-ferrous metal enterprises must follow the national policy, the downstream will follow the large smelting enterprises, and the downstream demand will affect the strategic layout of smelting enterprises.


Long term benefits remain to be seen


According to the data monitored by Zhuo Chuang information, the current capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 41.718 million tons. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association plans to expand the application of 6 million tons of aluminum in about three years, which may be beneficial to the market in the short term.


However, according to sun Kewen's analysis, the requirements of the work plan are not very clear, nor do they put forward practical operational measures, which cannot significantly improve the market or non-ferrous metal industry in the long run.


Although nonferrous metals is an important commodity trading product, its investment product attribute has not been paid attention to by all parties. At present, the attention of all parties to nonferrous metals is still focused on the commodity attribute and the change of its supply-demand relationship.


Sun Kewen introduced that at present, the commodity property of non-ferrous metals is weak, the key is to see its investment property, which is an important factor affecting the company's profit and price. Taking electrolytic copper as an example, from the three copper smelting companies that have been listed, Jiangxi copper (600362 > at the same time, compared with the overcapacity of steel and coal, the current situation of non-ferrous metal industry is still "optimistic". According to the data monitored by Zhuo Chuang information, the current capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 41.718 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 79.24%; the capacity of electrolytic copper is 9.95 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 83%.


(source: Dr. al)


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